Forecasting up to year 2000 on Shanghai's environmental quality


The capabilities of third world countries in dealing with environmental problems are often limited by available resources and the tremendous costs of environmental monitoring. This paper attempts to introduce a new methodology that can be used to derive information about environmental quality in its spatial and temporal dimensions. This methodology, based on an inquiry- feedback network of 8,000 families and iteration with controlled-feedback of expert community, has been first tested in Shanghai, China and procedurally can be divided into two steps: Base-year evaluation and forecasting. Fuzzy pattern recognition is introduced for the subjective assessment of the citizens' feelings their perceived environment and a four-round Delphi-Cross Impact analysis is conducted for forecasting the environmental changes up to 2000. Results show that the base-year environmental situations were poor. In the foreseeable future, the conditions for housing, social services, public health, greenspace and drinking water will be substantially improved. Due to the rapid growth of manufacturing, the city will continue its deteriorating trend of air and water quality into the next century according to the forecast.

Publication Title

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment