Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Date

2025

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science

Department

Earth Sciences

Committee Chair

Angela Antipova

Committee Member

Dorian Burnette

Committee Member

Esra Ozdenerol

Abstract

This research investigates the complex effects of road capacity expansion (interchangeably referred to by road improvements), focusing on induced travel (measured with elasticity) and subsequent land development patterns in Tennessee from 1985-2019. Transportation planning often depends on widening roads to reduce traffic congestion. However, induced travel – the phenomenon where lowered travel costs lead to increased travel (measured with vehicle miles travelled (VMT)) – consistently undermines these expected benefits, resulting in negative externalities such as vehicle emissions and urban sprawl. The study used a multi-method approach, first, starting with a meta-analysis of induced travel as a consistent outcome of increased roadway capacity. Based on data from previous induced travel studies, this analysis revealed that elasticity varies depending on the context, generally being higher at local levels (city/county) than at broader scales, and is influenced by methodological precision. Second, using empirical travel data obtained from TDOT, a relationship has been explored between expanding capacity (measured in lane-miles) and travel (measured in VMT) in Tennessee for the period 2000 – 2019. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage least squares (2SLS) models have been applied to Tennessee facilities (that is, roads). The latter effectively corrected for simultaneity bias (endogeneity), revealing significantly higher VMT elasticities in the range of ~1.86 to 1.88, compared to the baseline OLS estimate of ~1.13. This finding confirmed that conventional OLS methods tend to underestimate the true extent of induced travel. Additionally, the research examined the spatial relationship between road improvements and land use, finding that employment density is the strongest predictor of land development. The results highlighted a clear distinction between urban and rural areas: road improvements significantly affected development density and drove local economic growth primarily in urban regions. In summary, this study confirms that road capacity expansion generates a substantial and often underestimated induced travel, which serves as a key driver of land development, particularly in vibrant urban economic centers. These insights emphasize the importance for planners to adopt context-appropriate modeling techniques and strategic planning that consider both economic and spatial factors when making decisions about transportation investments.

Comments

Data is provided by the student.”

Library Comment

Dissertation or thesis originally submitted to ProQuest.

Notes

Embargoed until 11-17-2026

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Available for download on Tuesday, November 17, 2026

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