Dynamic Rupture Modeling of the M7.2 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah Earthquake: Comparison With a Geodetic Model

Abstract

The 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake is the largest event recorded in the broader Southern California-Baja California region in the last 18 years. Here we try to analyze primary features of this type of event by using dynamic rupture simulations based on a multifault interface and later compare our results with space geodetic models. Our results show that starting from homogeneous prestress conditions, slip heterogeneity can be achieved as a result of variable dip angle along strike and the modulation imposed by step over segments. We also considered effects from a topographic free surface and find that although this does not produce significant first-order effects for this earthquake, even a low topographic dome such as the Cucapah range can affect the rupture front pattern and fault slip rate. Finally, we inverted available interferometric synthetic aperture radar data, using the same geometry as the dynamic rupture model, and retrieved the space geodetic slip distribution that serves to constrain the dynamic rupture models. The one to one comparison of the final fault slip pattern generated with dynamic rupture models and the space geodetic inversion show good agreement. Our results lead us to the following conclusion: in a possible multifault rupture scenario, and if we have first-order geometry constraints, dynamic rupture models can be very efficient in predicting large-scale slip heterogeneities that are important for the correct assessment of seismic hazard and the magnitude of future events. Our work contributes to understanding the complex nature of multifault systems.

Publication Title

Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth

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